Prognosis for Spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease




During the 2001 FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), the RIMPUFF atmospheric dispersion model included in ARGOS were applied in real time in order to assess the potential for atmospheric dispersion of the disease. The operational value of such modeling is primarily to identify premises which may have been exposed so that the human resources for surveillance and disease control purposes are employed most effectively.


The paper describes the combined modeling techniques and presents the results obtained of detailed analyses performed during the early stages of the UK 2001 epidemic.


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